Psychology · Level 5 · 258 words
The First Number Wins
Original passage © Team AM, written for Hone Literacy.
When we judge an unknown quantity, the mind reaches for a starting point and adjusts from there. The trouble is that the starting point need not be relevant, and the adjustment is usually too small. The first figure we encounter, even an arbitrary one, tugs our estimate toward itself. Psychologists call this the anchoring effect.
The pull is surprisingly strong. In studies, people asked whether a quantity is higher or lower than some random number, perhaps drawn from a spin of a wheel, will later give estimates that drift toward that meaningless number. They do not believe the wheel knows anything, and yet their guesses bend toward it. The anchor works even when we are told to ignore it.
This quietly shapes the marketplace. A high original price printed beside a sale price makes the sale feel generous, because the original anchors our sense of what the item is worth. A first offer in a negotiation frames every counteroffer that follows. Even an absurd opening demand can drag the final agreement in its direction, which is why the person who names the first number often holds an unseen advantage.
The defense is not to feel immune, since no one is. It is to notice when a number has been handed to you and to ask, deliberately, what the thing would be worth if you had never seen that figure at all. Generating your own estimate first, before any anchor appears, is one of the few reliable ways to keep the anchor from setting the terms of your judgment.
Comprehension questions
1. The passage is mainly about
- A how to win every negotiation
- B how an initial number, even an irrelevant one, biases our later estimates
- C why sale prices are always fair
- D how wheels are used in psychology labs
Show answer
B. how an initial number, even an irrelevant one, biases our later estimates
The passage defines and illustrates the anchoring effect: a first number pulls our estimates toward it.
2. Why does naming the first number give a negotiator an advantage?
- A It ends the negotiation immediately
- B It sets an anchor that drags later counteroffers toward it
- C It proves the negotiator is honest
- D It lowers the final price for everyone
Show answer
B. It sets an anchor that drags later counteroffers toward it
The text says a first offer frames every counteroffer and even an absurd demand drags the final agreement toward it.
3. What does the passage recommend as a defense against anchoring?
- A Believing you are immune to it
- B Forming your own estimate before any anchor appears
- C Always accepting the first offer
- D Ignoring all prices entirely
Show answer
B. Forming your own estimate before any anchor appears
The passage says generating your own estimate first, before an anchor appears, is a reliable defense.
Source: Written for Hone Literacy. Original passage © Team AM, written for Hone Literacy.